Overview
Situational Awareness LP · Q1 2026 13F · 33 distinct positions · filed May 15, 2026 · prices through May 15, 2026 · today
13F Notional
$13.68B
Q1 2026 filing
Portfolio YTD
+39.45%
notional-weighted
Alpha vs SPY
+31.06 pp
SPY YTD +8.40%
Positions
33
26 long · 11 short
Top Holding
SMH · 14.94%
Short puts
Short Book
61.9%
$8.46B notional puts
Bucket Allocation
long + short overlay · $13.68B notional
Long $5.22B · 38.1%
Short $8.46B · 61.9%
Today's Movers
position P&L · direction-corrected · vs prev close May 15Gainers
Losers
Top 10 Holdings
by 13F weight| Ticker | Name | Side | Wt | 13F Value | Price | Day P&L | Bucket |
|---|
Earnings Calendar
upcoming reports · sorted by date| Ticker | Company | Side | Wt | Last EPS | Next Earnings | Est. EPS |
|---|
Live Newsfeed
portfolio-impacting headlines · long & short thesesAll Holdings
All 33 distinct positions · 26 long, 11 short · click column headers to sort
| Ticker | Name | Side | Weight | 13F Value | Price | Day P&L | YTD P&L | Trend | Type | Bucket | Thesis |
|---|
Allocation
By long/short overlay, bucket, and individual position
Long vs Short Mix
$13.68B notionalBucket Mix
all 33 positionsBy Bucket
$ notional · weightBy Position
all 33 disclosed weights · color = bucketPerformance
2026 YTD returns vs benchmarks · AUM growth timeline · close May 15, 2026
Portfolio YTD
+39.45%
2026 YTD · weighted
S&P 500 YTD
+8.40%
SPY tracker
Nasdaq 100 YTD
+15.40%
QQQ tracker
Alpha vs SPY
+31.06 pp
vs S&P 500
Cumulative Return — 2026 YTD
Portfolio vs SPY · QQQ · SMH (the ETF being shorted)Benchmark Comparison
2026 YTD · through May 15| Strategy / ETF | YTD | vs SA |
|---|---|---|
| SA Fund | +39.45% | — |
| SMH · VanEck Semis | +54.48% | +15.03 |
| QQQ · Nasdaq 100 | +15.40% | −24.05 |
| SPY · S&P 500 | +8.40% | −31.06 |
AUM & Strategy Milestones
13F disclosed notionalJUN 2024
$383M anchor raise
Fund launches with concentrated AGI-infrastructure mandate.
Q4 2024
$255M · 6 positions
First 13F filing — tight initial book.
Q1 2025
$1.0B · Intel calls 45.7%
Massive contrarian INTC call position dominates.
Q3 2025
$4.1B · exit semis
Closes NVDA / TSMC / AVGO into consensus.
Q4 2025
$5.52B · Bloom #1
Power becomes the binding constraint — BE jumps to top weight.
Q1 2026
$13.68B · short overlay added
Massive thesis shift: 61.9% short via puts on NVDA / AMD / AVGO / SMH / MU / TSM / ASML / ORCL. Longs concentrate in Power, Storage, Miners→AI.
Thesis Map
Q1 2026: Aschenbrenner's framework with a tactical short overlay against the AI semi/cloud capex peak
Core Macro Belief
AGI by 2027–28 · physical infra is still the binding constraint
Models scale faster than the world can build for them. Compute, power, optics and storage become the rate-limiting chain — not algorithms. The US-China race elevates this to a national-security question: domestic fabs, domestic power, domestic data centers.
Q1 2026 update: with consensus now firmly priced into the chip layer, we add a tactical short overlay on names where AI capex digestion risk is asymmetric — while staying long the parts of the stack where supply remains genuinely scarce.
The Short Overlay (NEW · Q1 2026)
61.9% short via puts — fade peak AI capex
- Short SMH (14.9%) — broad-semi peak-cycle hedge; ETF up +54% YTD.
- Short NVDA (11.5%) — compute commoditization as CRWV / hyperscalers vertically integrate.
- Short ORCL (7.8%) — AI-capex cashflow stretch; valuation reset.
- Short AVGO (7.4%) · AMD (7.1%) — fade GPU/ASIC consensus.
- Short MU (4.3%) · TSM (3.9%) · ASML (3.6%) — HBM & lithography cycle peak.
- Short INTC (1.2%) · INFY · GLW — execution + secular IT displacement hedges.
The Long Book — Where Scarcity Still Wins
Power, Storage & Miners → AI
- BE · 6.8% · Bloom Energy — Oracle 2.8 GW SOFC deal; behind-the-meter generation is the most scarce input.
- SNDK · 8.1% · SanDisk — NAND/HBM cycle still ramping (+493% pos YTD).
- CRWV · 5.1% · CoreWeave — GPU-as-a-Service hyperscaler.
- IREN / CORZ / APLD / RIOT / CLSK / BTDR / BITF / HIVE — stranded-power miners pivoting to HPC hosting.
- SEI · BW · TE · PSIX · PUMP — distributed power generation tail.
The Bottleneck Stack
Five layers, in order of scarcity
① Power
→
② DC space
→
③ Optical
→
④ Storage
→
⑤ Chips
Own each layer until consensus prices it in — then rotate forward, or short it. Chips were obvious in 2023; today the marginal scarcity is on-site generation and high-speed interconnect, and the marginal excess is GPU compute capex.
8-Step Framework
How the book is constructed
- Structural macro thesis first — start with the 5-year world.
- Find bottlenecks, not obvious winners.
- Optionality via contrarian calls on hated names.
- Hedge / short consensus longs with puts at cycle peaks.
- Embrace concentration — top 5 names > 50% of notional.
- Stranded assets = hidden calls on the next use case.
- Integrate geopolitics as an investment input.
- Publish the thesis publicly to compound conviction.
Q1 2026 Headline Returns
Long winners more than offset short losses
- Long side wins: SNDK long+calls +493% YTD; BE long+calls +218%; INTC long +195%; SEI +71%; APLD +74%; RIOT +85%; CORZ +66%.
- Short side losses: AMD put −98%, MU put −154%, GLW put −119%, INTC put −195% (small) — offset by direction-correct ORCL put +1% and INFY put +32%.
- Net: notional-weighted YTD +39.45% vs SPY +8.40% → alpha +31.06 pp.